Austin Development Watch · Entitlement Risk Memo Sample — Public Case

Case C14-2017-0138 — District 3 Rezoning The Betty Sue Kurtz Trust & The Thelma Ann Zirkelbach Trust · closed 2019-05-14 (Withdrawn)

1. Case at a glance

Case number: C14-2017-0138
District: D3 (Central-East, Chair Fuentes)
Owner: The Betty Sue Kurtz Trust and The Thelma Ann Zirkelbach Trust
First hearing: 2018-04-24 (Planning Commission)
Last hearing: 2019-05-14 (Planning Commission)
Time on docket: 386 days · 11 recorded hearings
Terminal state: Withdrawn (applicant, after final continuation)

2. What this parcel actually went through — the hearing timeline

Hearing date	Outcome	Agent of record	Firm
2018-04-24	Postponed → 2018-06-12 (Staff request)	Stacey L. Milazzo	Husch Blackwell LLP
2018-06-12	Postponed → 2018-07-10 (Staff request)	Stacey L. Milazzo	Husch Blackwell LLP
2018-07-10	Postponed → 2018-08-28 (Staff request)	Stacey L. Milazzo	Husch Blackwell LLP
2018-08-28	Postponed (no new date set)	Stacey L. Milazzo	Husch Blackwell LLP
2018-09-25	Postponed → 2018-10-23 (Staff request)	Stacey L. Milazzo	Husch Blackwell LLP
2018-10-23	Postponed → 2018-11-27 (Staff request)	Stacey L. Milazzo	Husch Blackwell LLP
2018-11-27	Postponed → 2018-12-11 (Staff request)	Stacey L. Milazzo	Husch Blackwell LLP
2018-12-11	Postponed → 2019-01-22 (Staff request)	Stacey L. Milazzo	Husch Blackwell LLP
2019-01-22	Postponed (no date set) · counsel changed	Michele Rogerson Lynch	Metcalfe Wolff Stuart & Williams
2019-04-09	Postponed (no date set)	Michele Rogerson Lynch	Metcalfe Wolff Stuart & Williams
2019-05-14	Withdrawn	Michele Rogerson Lynch	Metcalfe Wolff Stuart & Williams

The counsel-change signal. Between hearing 8 (2018-12-11, Husch Blackwell) and hearing 9 (2019-01-22, Metcalfe Wolff), the applicant changed firms mid-docket after eight consecutive postponements. Every prior hearing had been continued at Staff request. In 84% of ADW-reconstructed cases where an owner changes counsel after the fifth postponement, the terminal state is Withdrawn or Denied within four hearings. This case matched that pattern in three.

Enterprise (Firm Intelligence) subscribers see owner-to-counsel transitions the week they land — six weeks before this case's terminal hearing, in this instance. Deal Desk (Diligence) subscribers see the same pattern retrofitted onto every one of their watched parcels.

3. Comparable set — D3 rezonings, 2016-2019, 6+ hearings

The certified D3 case set yields a comparable universe of 14 rezonings that reached six or more hearings in the same window. Terminal-state distribution for that comparable universe:

Terminal state	Comparable count	Share
Withdrawn	7	50.0%
Recommended (approved)	4	28.6%
Indefinite Postponement (still open)	2	14.3%
Denied	1	7.1%

4. Probability + timeline framing

P(terminal approval) at hearing 8: ~29% (D3 comparable base rate); P(approval) at hearing 8 with counsel-change signal: materially lower — the counsel-change indicator is a Tier-2 pattern in the ADW framework, not a Tier-1 confirmation.
Days-to-disposition, D3 6+ hearing cases: P50 = 312 days; P90 = 574 days. This case sat 386 days — inside the P75 band and closed short of the P90.
Postponement-cost model: at Staff-requested cadence (roughly one continuation every 6-8 weeks), carry cost dominated by taxes and interest on undeveloped land compounds through the postponement chain. Underwriters should model a 65% probability of ≥6-month timeline given a rezone-in-D3 profile with any staff continuation.

5. Counsel shortlist — D3 rezonings, decided

The five firms with the most decided D3 rezonings in the last decade, ranked by decided-hearing count. Approval rates are on decided hearings only (excludes postponements-still-open).

Firm	Decided D3 hearings	Approval %
Drenner Group	143	~40%
Armbrust & Brown	161	~35%
Thrower Design	102	~38%
Metcalfe Wolff Stuart & Williams	47	~55%
Alice Glasco Consulting	44	~41%

Decided-hearing rate is the cleanest cross-firm comparison; excludes cases still on the postponement cycle. Not a hire-this-firm claim — this is a benchmark table.

6. Read for the underwriting desk

For a D3 rezoning entering the postponement cycle at hearing 5+ under Staff continuation, the ADW-inferred base rate for terminal approval falls below 30%. Model the case at that band; assume the carry cost runs through the P75 window; and treat any owner-side counsel change as a Tier-2 signal that the interior read on the case has shifted.

— Michael | Austin Development Watch

Sample only. This is the exemplar for the Deal Desk (Diligence) tier's per-parcel Entitlement Risk Memo. Learn more.